Atlantic storm drivers lining up for increasingly active end to August: CSU
The Atlantic has a 50% of delivering an above average dose of tropical cyclone activity in the latter half of August, with soe model systems starting to flash red, a key research institution said of the near-term outlook.
Underlying models are flashing some red, researchers at Colorado State University have warned. CSU notes one reading looking “quite aggressive for storm formation in the next two weeks: with several “vigorous waves” coming off Africa. Another prediction system is zeroing in on potential threats in the western Caribbean.
Researchers have their eyes on the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a moving circulation pattern that can enhance storm activity. Readings on that driver are considered “weak” today, but are “forecast to potentially amplify into phases 1-2 in the next two weeks.”
That builds on a larger seasonal outlook still tilted to above-average storm activity as storm-supportive warm sea surface temperatures trump hoped-for storm-suppressive wind shear which should arise from the 2023 move to El Nino.
On the bottom line, CSU gives a 50% chance of above-normal activity, defined as total cyclone energy above the 18 marker which defines the upper third of the sixty-year average. CSU gives a 40% chance for an ACE reading in the middle third of the historical average, between 6 and 18. Chances for a below-normal period are only 10%.
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