Idalia will hit Florida at Cat-4; storm surge warnings abound
Hurricane Idalia will bear down on the Big Bend of the Florida Gulf coast as a major category 4 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned in its latest forecast.
“Based on the current strengthening trend and the favourable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening seems likely up to landfall,” the NHC said of its call for Cat-4 strength at landfall.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for a nearly 400-mile (640 km) stretch of the Florida Gulf coast from just south of the Tampa Bay area on the peninsula to roughly the middle of the panhandle.
“Catastrophic storm surge and destructive winds [are] expected in the Florida big bend region this morning when Idalia moves inland,” researchers wrote in the update from 2:00 AM local time.
Storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet (3.7 - 4.9m) above ground level and destructive waves are expected across the big bend, the NHC said.
The official storm surge warning, including lower degrees of severity, continues south to Englewood, including 4 to 6 feet (1.2 - 1.8m) in the Tampa Bay area.
Property values at risk are focused on the very southern tip of the hurricane warning area near Tampa Bay, analysts at CoreLogic noted. Projected landfall regions are considerably more sparsely populated.
CoreLogic estimates approximately 808,321 single- and multifamily residential properties with $238.4 billion in combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) at risk of storm surge flooding along the fuller west coast of Florida, but puts 95% of that sum in counties in and around the Tampa Bay area at the southern tip of the hurricane warning zone.
Hurricane and tropical storm watches and storm surge warnings and watches are also in place for the Atlantic coast as well as Idalia passes through Florida to the Atlantic.
After landfall Wednesday, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in a 24-36 hour timeframe, but uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 48 hours is considered "quite large".
At 2:00 AM US eastern time, the storm remained 100 miles (175 km) SW of Cedar Key Florida, traveling nearly due north at 15 mph (24 km/h). Maximum sustained wind speeds were listed at 120 mph (195 km/h).
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