VIG draws 2022 growth from CEE, but lacks visibility for 2023 forecast

Vienna Insurance Group (VIG) managed a 14.1% rise in gross written premium to €12.6 billion in 2022, claiming gains in all segments and double digit growth everywhere save life single premium.

The double digit premium growth rate includes consolidation of Aegon units in Hungary and Turkey. Ex-M&A, VIG premiums rose 10.1%.

VIG's playground of central and eastern Europe is a growth-driver. The group took 13.8% premium growth in Czechia, a muted 5.7% gain in Poland and then 24.5% growth from the rest of its CEE markets, in part driven by the Hungarian consolidations.

Growth on the home market of Austria pales at a mere 2.2% year on year, but still accounts for just over a third of total book by premium.

By product line, growth hit 20% in motor third party liability, 16% in auto casco and 16.0% for remaining property lines.

Claims ratios held flat against the prior year at 61.6%, but VIG suffered an uptick in its combined ratio of 0.8 percentage points (pps), chiefly on a rise in the expense ratio. Poland and the extended CEE markets are the OPEX troublemakers.

By the bottom line, pre-tax profits were up 10% to €562.4 million, despite previously announced impairments on Russian assets.

VIG swore off any fresh annual guidance, claiming that weaker macroeconomic conditions, increased financial market volatility and the unknown unknowns of geopolitics restricted forward visibility.

"Any firm outlook can only be provided during the course of the year" and in the new IFRS17/9 accounting standards, management said.

Their only conviction: the VIG home base of central and eastern Europe is a long-term outperformer versus western Europe.

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